I have focused on the overs with each of my First Look columns so far this season, but they came in yet again in Week 4. This is truly remarkable. The average total this week was lined at nearly 50 points, the highest we have seen in our database going back to 1986.
Caesars (New Jersey) - Live Odds.
Visit ESPN to view NFL odds, point spreads and moneylines from this week's games. Point Spread: Commonly called the line or spread, it is the number chosen by Las Vegas and overseas oddsmakers that they feel will get an equal number of people to wager on the underdog as on the. Dec 22, 2020 Below you can find all of the lines for the upcoming college football bowl games this holiday season. 21 Myrtle Beach Bowl - Appalachian State vs. North Texas - 2:30 p.m., TV: ESPN.
I mentioned last week that I didn't expect a sudden correction, yet I found myself betting an under anyway in the Jaguars-Bengals game on Sunday. I loved it -- I thought this was the one matchup with underlying numbers that couldn't justify an inflated total. It was looking great for about 29 minutes. But, in the end, it had no shot.
Our early look last week, on the Dolphins getting +7.5 or +7 against the Seahawks, was theoretically good. The Dolphins were only +4 at some shops by the time the game kicked off. That is a substantial move in our favor, but the 31-23 final score was an unfortunate result.
That's sports betting in a nutshell. This is why I always stress to people -- win or lose -- the importance of reviewing past wagers and comparing them not only to the game results, but the prices you paid relative to the closing market. Betting markets are the most predictive public source that exists in determining the outcomes of games. If you're on the right side of moves like that more often than not, it's a good sign.
There are two sides that jump out to me right away that I think will offer value going forward in Week 5. Let's take a look:
Arizona Cardinals (-7.5, 47) at New York Jets
The Jets just gave up 37 points to a Brett Rypien-led Broncos team. New York is a mess, and reports are that quarterback Sam Darnold suffered a sprained shoulder and is questionable for this matchup against Arizona. Whether he gives it a go or not, Darnold at less than 100% or a Joe Flacco sighting isn't good news.
The immediate market reaction to Arizona's two wins to start the season over San Francisco and Washington was drastic. The Lions and Panthers took sharp money against the Cardinals in Weeks 3 and 4, and now I think we are getting a cheap re-buy on Week 3 MVP candidate Kyler Murray.
Even with Darnold under center, I expect this number to move closer to -10. But if you are wary of laying more than a touchdown with a road favorite, then the Cardinals are certainly a great six-point teaser leg option right now, taking the line down to -1.5 through the key numbers.
Indianapolis Colts (-1, 47.5) at Cleveland Browns
Both the Colts and Browns have taken money each of the past two weeks in the market, and both covered their respective games. The difference between these two teams is fairly glaring, however. Entering Week 4 Indianapolis graded out as the No. 1 defense in the league, according to DVOA. The Colts were ranked third in the NFL in success rate both against the run and the pass. They were tops in the league in opponent yards per play (4.4). And this was before they held the Bears to zero touchdowns and three points before a garbage time score in Chicago and a two-point conversion got them to 11.
The Browns were ranked slightly above league average defensively before giving up 38 points and 566 yards to the Cowboys. Dallas turned it over three times for 21 Cleveland points, which helped solidify the Browns' victory, but there certainly weren't promising signs defensively.
Especially with scoring at a rate we have never witnessed before, I expect the market to side with the team carrying a demonstrative advantage defensively. My projection is closer to Colts -2 anyway. If you like Indianapolis in this matchup, I think it will serve you best to take the Colts early. If you are looking at Cleveland, there's no rush.
EARLY WEEK 5 LINES (as of midnight ET Monday, via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill)
Thursday
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6, 45) at Chicago Bears
Sunday
Espn Betting Lines For Today
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, total not available)
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (not available)
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-12, total not available)
Arizona Cardinals (-7.5, 47) at New York Jets
Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, total not available)
Los Angeles Rams (-9, 46) at Washington Football Team
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-14, 52)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5, 54)
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-8, total not available)
Indianapolis Colts (-1, 47.5) at Cleveland Browns
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5, 54)
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (not available)
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 57.5)
Monday
Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 52)
Things may not be going well for the Raiders lately, but oddsmakers still give them the slight edge of the rival Chargers tonight. The Raiders are 4-point favorites on Thursday Night Football according to BetMGM.
A game-winning field goal last week for the Chargers gave them the win over the Falcons. Just three weeks ago the Raiders suffered their worst loss of the season to those Falcons, falling 43-6.
Since then the Raiders nearly (should have) lost to the winless Jets and were beaten up by the Colts. This had the team finally cut ties with defensive coordinator Paul Guenther. Defensive line coach Rod Marinelli was promoted to interim DC for the remaining three games.
It took two consecutive pass breakups by Isaiah Johnson in the end zone to preserve the Raiders win over the Chargers in their first meeting this season.
Espn Betting Lines College Basketball
This time the Raiders are banged up. They will be missing six starters, including three of whom were lost just this week — DE Clelin Ferrell (shoulder), LB Nicholas Morrow (concussion), and S Johnathan Abram (concussion). The others are DT Maliek Collins, S Jeff Heath, and CB Damon Arnette.
Additionally the team placed WR Henry Ruggs III on the reserve/COVID-19 list.
Espn Betting Lines Ncaa Football
If the Raiders offense plays like they’ve proven they’re capable this season, they should put up a lot of points. But if the defense plays like they’ve shown they’re prone, they will give up a lot of yards and keep the Raiders’ offense off the field. Hard to know which will show up this week.